{"id":242,"date":"2016-09-27T10:01:12","date_gmt":"2016-09-27T03:01:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/robostock.vn\/web\/?p=242"},"modified":"2016-09-27T10:01:12","modified_gmt":"2016-09-27T03:01:12","slug":"phan-tich-tam-ly-tren-thi-truong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/robostock.vn\/web\/phan-tich-tam-ly-tren-thi-truong\/","title":{"rendered":"PH\u00c2N T\u00cdCH T\u00c2M L\u00dd tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng"},"content":{"rendered":"

\t\t\t\t#<\/span>Rbskienthuc<\/span><\/a>:<\/span>\u00a0Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u00e2m l\u00fd c\u0169ng l\u00e0 1 tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e1i ph\u00e2n t\u00edch kh\u00f4ng ch\u00ednh th\u1ed1ng d\u00f9ng trong th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh.<\/p>\n

\"K\u1ebft<\/p>\n


\n-Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng chi ph\u00ed ch\u00ecm(sunk cost)<\/p>\n


\n+Chi ph\u00ed ph\u00e1t sinh t\u1eeb k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a con ng\u01b0\u1eddi s\u1ebd \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1edbi nh\u1eefng quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh sau n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

\n

+V\u00ed d\u1ee5, m\u00e1y x\u00e1ch tay c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n b\u1ecb h\u1ecfng, \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u1eeda h\u00e0ng s\u1eeda th\u00ec ph\u1ea3i thay m\u00e0n h\u00ecnh tinh th\u1ec3 l\u1ecfng m\u1ea5t 500 USD. Sau \u0111\u00f3 m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi gian th\u00ec l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3t CPU, \u1ed5 c\u1ee9ng b\u1ecb h\u1ecfng. Mang ra c\u1eeda h\u00e0ng s\u1eeda th\u00ec ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta n\u00f3i ph\u1ea3i m\u1ea5t 1000 USD. Khi \u0111\u00f3, b\u1ea1n x\u1eed l\u00fd nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o? V\u1eeba m\u1edbi chi 500 USD \u0111\u1ec3 thay m\u00e0n h\u00ecnh, b\u00e2y gi\u1edd l\u1ea1i chi th\u00eam 1000 USD. Th\u00eam \u00edt ti\u1ec1n n\u1eefa l\u00e0 mua \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1i m\u00e1y m\u1edbi ngon l\u00e0nh h\u01a1n r\u1ed3i. \u0110\u01b0\u01a1ng nhi\u00ean, b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd ngh\u0129 t\u1edbi ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n mua m\u00e1y m\u1edbi. Nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu l\u00e0m nh\u01b0 v\u1eady 500 USD v\u1eeba m\u1edbi b\u1ecf ra th\u00e0nh con s\u1ed1 0 \u00e0? Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, b\u1ea1n quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh b\u1ecf th\u00eam 1000 USD \u0111\u1ec3 s\u1eeda m\u00e1y.<\/p>\n

+M\u1ea5u ch\u1ed1t \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 n\u1ebfu ko c\u00f3 500 USD \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3i chi tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 th\u00ec c\u00f3 l\u1ebd b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd ch\u1ecdn ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n mua m\u00e1y m\u1edbi. B\u1edfi \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u1ee3p l\u00fd nh\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n

+\u0110\u00e2y c\u0169ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i t\u00e2m l\u00fd c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 \u0111\u00e3 thua l\u1ed7 tri\u1ec1n mi\u00ean trong vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 m\u1ed9t c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu nh\u01b0ng b\u1ea1n ko mu\u1ed1n thay \u0111\u1ed5i v\u00ec n\u1ebfu l\u00e0m nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd ngh\u0129 r\u1eb1ng bao c\u00f4ng s\u1ee9c, th\u1eddi gian, chi ph\u00ed m\u00e0 m\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecf ra th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng c\u1ed1c.<\/p>\n

+N\u00f3i r\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n, vi\u1ec7c kinh doanh c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 v\u1eady. Nhi\u1ec1u doanh nghi\u1ec7p b\u1ecb sa l\u1ea7y v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t d\u1ef1 \u00e1n thua l\u1ed7 v\u00ec b\u1ecb ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng chi ph\u00ed ch\u00ecm.
\n-T\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb danh m\u1ee5c c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng gi\u1ea3m?<\/p>\n

\"K\u1ebft<\/p>\n

+Th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng, nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 t\u00e2m l\u00fd l\u00e0 : d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng b\u00e1n \u0111i nh\u1eefng c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn, nh\u01b0ng r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 b\u00e1n \u0111i nh\u1eefng c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111ang b\u1ecb l\u1ed7 b\u1edfi v\u00ec l\u00e0m nh\u01b0 v\u1eady \u0111\u1ed3ng ngh\u0129a v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn m\u00ecnh sai l\u1ea7m. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ebfn l\u00fac \u0111\u1ec3 \u00fd l\u1ea1i th\u00ec th\u1ea5y trong danh m\u1ee5c c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh c\u00f2n to\u00e0n nh\u1eefng c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111ang b\u1ecb l\u1ed7.<\/p>\n

+Th\u1ef1c ra, nh\u1eefng c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111ang t\u0103ng gi\u00e1(c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn) l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu m\u00e0 m\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e3 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u00fang v\u1ec1 trend th\u00ec kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft ph\u1ea3i b\u00e1n v\u1ed9i. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, ch\u00ednh nh\u1eefng c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111ang b\u1ecb l\u1ed7(do m\u00ecnh nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh sai trend) th\u00ec m\u1edbi ph\u1ea3i x\u1eed l\u00fd g\u1ea5p.
\nT\u00edch ti\u1ec3u th\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ea1i. M\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y m\u1ed9t \u00edt. Bi\u1ec3n h\u1ecdc m\u00eanh m\u00f4ng.
\n-L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng (Prospect theory)<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

+T\u1ea1i sao con ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn r\u1ee7i ro(risk-taker) khi b\u1ecb t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t?<\/p>\n

+C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi 1<\/p>\n

1. Ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 800 USD.<\/p>\n

2. 85% l\u00e0 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 1600 USD, 15% l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u00ec.<\/p>\n

C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi 2<\/p>\n

3. Ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn m\u1ea5t 800 USD.<\/p>\n

4. 85% l\u00e0 m\u1ea5t 1600 USD, 15% l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng m\u1ea5t g\u00ec.<\/p>\n

+Trong 2 c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi tr\u00ean, b\u1ea1n ch\u1ecdn tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p n\u00e0o?<\/p>\n

+V\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc th\u00ec ch\u1ecdn tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p 2 v\u00e0 3 l\u00e0 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c. Tuy nhi\u00ean, khi \u0111i\u1ec1u tra th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf th\u00ec h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u1ea1i ch\u1ecdn 1 v\u00e0 4.<\/p>\n

+L\u00fd thuy\u1ebft k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng cho r\u1eb1ng : khi c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i th\u00ec ta n\u00ean d\u1ef1 li\u1ec7u cao h\u01a1n nh\u1eefng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u00f3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p, c\u00f2n khi t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t th\u00ec ta n\u00ean d\u1ef1 li\u1ec7u th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n nh\u1eefng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u00f3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cao.<\/p>\n

+B\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t th\u00ec con ng\u01b0\u1eddi r\u1ea5t gh\u00e9t b\u1ecb thua, b\u1ecb th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i. Nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ecbu ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn m\u1ed9t th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i nh\u1ecf th\u00ec s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i g\u00e1nh m\u1ed9t th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i l\u1edbn h\u01a1n. B\u1edfi v\u00ec gh\u00e9t th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee9c t\u00ednh t\u1ed1t trong h\u1ecdc t\u1eadp v\u00e0 th\u1ec3 thao nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea1i r\u1ea5t nguy hi\u1ec3m trong \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/span>T\u00f3m l\u1ea1i, hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c h\u00f3a kho\u1ea3n l\u1ed7 c\u0169ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t vi\u1ec7c c\u1ea7n l\u00e0m nh\u01b0 hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c h\u00f3a l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn v\u1eady.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

+Gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u1ed9 c\u1ea3m nh\u1eadn<\/p>\n

+N\u00f3i m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n, c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 vi\u1ec7c nh\u01b0ng c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi th\u1eddi gian th\u00ec c\u00e1ch c\u1ea3m nh\u1eadn s\u1ebd thay \u0111\u1ed5i.<\/p>\n

+Nh\u00ecn v\u00e0o bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y th\u00ec s\u1ebd nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y n\u1ebfu l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i c\u00e0ng xa \u0111i\u1ec3m tham chi\u1ebfu th\u00ec \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch c\u1ee7a h\u00e0m gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u00e0ng nh\u1ecf. T\u1ee9c l\u00e0 khi l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn(t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t) t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i c\u00e0ng xa \u0111i\u1ec3m tham chi\u1ebfu th\u00ec con ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00e0ng tr\u1edf n\u00ean l\u1ef3.<\/p>\n

+C\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ea5y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u1ed9 c\u1ea3m nh\u1eadn c\u1ee7a con ng\u01b0\u1eddi trong cu\u1ed9c s\u1ed1ng h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y. V\u00ed d\u1ee5 trong cu\u1ed9c h\u1eb9n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t c\u00f4 g\u00e1i m\u00e0 b\u1ea1n th\u00edch th\u00ec b\u1ea1n r\u1ea5t run. Nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu \u0111i ch\u01a1i nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ea7n v\u1edbi c\u00f4 b\u1ea1n \u0111\u00f3 th\u00ec c\u1ea3m gi\u00e1c ban \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd m\u1ea5t d\u1ea7n.<\/p>\n

+Trong \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n th\u00ec \u201cgi\u1ea3m \u0111\u1ed9 c\u1ea3m nh\u1eadn\u201d c\u0169ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 h\u1ebft s\u1ee9c quan tr\u1ecdng. V\u00ed d\u1ee5 b\u1ea1n mua c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu A v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 100.000VND\/c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu nh\u01b0ng sau \u0111\u00f3 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng 90.000VND th\u00ec b\u1ea1n c\u1ea3m th\u1ea5y r\u1ea5t lo l\u1eafng. Nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n v\u1eabn gi\u1eef c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u00f3 v\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c gi\u1ea3m t\u1eeb 50.000VND xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n 40.000VND th\u00ec l\u00fac n\u00e0y b\u1ea1n h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n lo l\u1eafng g\u00ec n\u1eefa(m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00f9ng m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m 10.000VND). \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00e2m l\u00fd h\u1ebft s\u1ee9c \u0111\u00e1ng s\u1ee3 m\u00e0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ea7n hi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ec3 kh\u1eafc ph\u1ee5c. \u0110\u00fang l\u00e0 \u201d gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u1ed9 c\u1ea3m nh\u1eadn\u201d v\u00ed d\u1ee5 :<\/p>\n

*1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 1000usd v\u00e0o Ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n anh ta g\u1eb7p ph\u1ea3i c\u01a1n l\u0169 gi\u00e1 v\u1eeba qua m\u1ea5t :<\/p>\n

100 usd \u2014 k v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1, \u0103n thua g\u00ec<\/p>\n

200usd\u2014 ch\u01b0a v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1, t\u00f4i v\u1eabn s\u1ed1ng t\u1ed1t<\/p>\n

300usd \u2014 m\u1ea5t th\u00eam 100 th\u00ec c\u00f3 nh\u1eb1m nh\u00f2 g\u00ec, t\u00f4i c\u00f2n s\u1ed1ng m\u00e0<\/p>\n

400usd\u2013 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00ean t\u00f4i s\u1ebd g\u1ee1 l\u1ea1i<\/p>\n

500usd\u2013 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng xu\u1ed1ng th\u1ea5p r\u1ed3i c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i l\u00ean l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn, b\u00e1n \u0111i m\u1edbi l\u00e0 thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i th\u1eadt<\/p>\n

700usd \u2014 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111ang l\u00ean mua k mua \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c, t\u00f4i \u0111ang tr\u00ean con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng g\u1ee1 h\u00f2a v\u00e0 s\u1ebd c\u00f3 l\u00e3i th\u00f4i<\/p>\n

V\u00e2ng th\u01b0a c\u00e1c b\u00e1c n\u1ebfu t\u00ednh ra con s\u1ed1 khi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 1000USD nay ch\u1ec9 c\u00f2n 300USD th\u00ec nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u00e0y s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i g\u1ee1 l\u1ea1i 700usd t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1edbi 233% so v\u1edbi v\u1ed1n c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i v\u00e0 tu\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1edbi VNI ph\u1ea3i l\u00ean th\u00eam 233%. nh\u01b0 v\u1eady VNI ph\u1ea3i l\u00ean t\u1edbi 1665 \u0111i\u1ec3m ( gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i 400usd \u1edf 500 \u0111i\u1ec3m) th\u00ec nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u00e0y m\u1edbi h\u00f2a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e2y c\u0169ng l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng l\u1ed7i m\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 m\u1eafc ph\u1ea3i.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

#Rbskienthuc:\u00a0Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u00e2m l\u00fd c\u0169ng l\u00e0 1 tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e1i ph\u00e2n t\u00edch kh\u00f4ng ch\u00ednh th\u1ed1ng d\u00f9ng trong th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-242","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dau-tu"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/robostock.vn\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/242","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/robostock.vn\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/robostock.vn\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/robostock.vn\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/robostock.vn\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=242"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/robostock.vn\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/242\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/robostock.vn\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=242"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/robostock.vn\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=242"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/robostock.vn\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=242"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}