{"id":433,"date":"2016-10-10T10:22:14","date_gmt":"2016-10-10T03:22:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/robostock.vn\/web\/?p=433"},"modified":"2016-10-10T10:22:14","modified_gmt":"2016-10-10T03:22:14","slug":"chi-so-pe-chuyen-nhieu-nha-dau-tu-my-chua-biet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/robostock.vn\/web\/chi-so-pe-chuyen-nhieu-nha-dau-tu-my-chua-biet\/","title":{"rendered":"Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 P\/E: Chuy\u1ec7n nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 M\u1ef9 ch\u01b0a bi\u1ebft"},"content":{"rendered":"

\t\t\t\t\"nha-dau-tu-1443612850680\"<\/a><\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1edbn v\u1ec1 c\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch gi\u00e1 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb l\u00e3ng qu\u00ean ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n…<\/p>\n

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H\u01a1n 70 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y, hai gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Columbia l\u00e0 Benjamin Graham v\u00e0 David Dodd \u0111\u00e3 ngh\u0129 ra m\u1ed9t \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n m\u00e0 cho \u0111\u1ebfn ng\u00e0y nay, c\u00f3 l\u1ebd, v\u1eabn c\u00f2n c\u00f3 s\u1ee9c \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1edbn h\u01a1n b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 m\u1ed9t \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng n\u00e0o kh\u00e1c. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Sau s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n n\u0103m 1929, hai gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 n\u00e0y k\u00eau g\u1ecdi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u00ean t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng nh\u01b0 thu nh\u1eadp trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng ty v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty \u0111\u00f3, thay v\u00ec c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n xem \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. Theo Graham v\u00e0 Dodd, m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng ty v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn cao v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu r\u1ebb t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ecb \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p.<\/p>\n

Cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch gi\u00e1o khoa kinh \u0111i\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a hai gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 n\u00e0y xu\u1ea5t b\u1ea3n n\u0103m 1934 mang t\u1ef1a \u0111\u1ec1 \u201cPh\u00e2n t\u00edch ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n\u201d \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh cu\u1ed1n kinh th\u00e1nh cho tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 m\u00e0 ng\u00e0y nay, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb. Warren Buffett, ng\u01b0\u1eddi hi\u1ec7n gi\u1edd l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng t\u1ef7 ph\u00fa gi\u00e0u nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, \u0111\u00e3 tham gia v\u00e0o kh\u00f3a h\u1ecdc c\u1ee7a Graham t\u1ea1i Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Kinh doanh Columbia v\u00e0o th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 1950. Sau m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi gian ng\u1eafn l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c trong c\u00f4ng ty \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a Graham, Buffet \u0111\u00e3 m\u1edf c\u00f4ng ty ri\u00eang c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng trong vi\u1ec7c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft v\u00e0o th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, v\u00ec m\u1ed9t l\u00fd do n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1edbn c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u1ec1 c\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch gi\u00e1 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb l\u00e3ng qu\u00ean ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n. \u00dd t\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u00f3 nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh vi\u1ec7c c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u00ean t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng xu h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng n\u00ean b\u1ecb cu\u1ed1n v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng g\u00ec \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra trong th\u1eddi gian ng\u1eafn.<\/p>\n

D\u0129 nhi\u00ean, trong nh\u1eefng ng\u00e0y \u0111en t\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n M\u1ef9 v\u1eeba qua, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ph\u1ed1 Wall \u0111\u1ec1u n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec ph\u1ea3i lo l\u1eafng, \u00edt nh\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i \u1edf tr\u00ean m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n r\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn h\u01a1n. Trong n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00e0m c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u00ecnh t\u0129nh, gi\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u00e3 l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng, gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu l\u00fac n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 \u0111\u1eaft. C\u01a1 s\u1edf cho l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn n\u00e0y ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng: Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 P\/E (gi\u00e1\/thu nh\u1eadp).<\/p>\n

C\u00f3 v\u1ebb nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e2y ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u m\u00e0 Graham v\u00e0 Dodd y\u00eau th\u00edch. Theo c\u00e1ch hi\u1ec3u th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 P\/E b\u1eb1ng v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng ty chia cho thu nh\u1eadp t\u00ednh tr\u00ean m\u1ed7i c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu (EPS) trong v\u00f2ng 12 th\u00e1ng qua. C\u00e1c b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ecf qua vi\u1ec7c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n v\u00e0 ghi nh\u1edb \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n r\u1eb1ng, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 PE cho b\u1ea1n bi\u1ebft, m\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan gi\u1eefa gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty \u0111\u00f3. Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y c\u00e0ng cao, gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u00e0ng \u0111\u1eaft, v\u00e0 c\u00e0ng l\u00e0m m\u1ea1nh th\u00eam l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng g\u00ec di\u1ec5n ra ph\u00eda tr\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng m\u1ea5y t\u1ed1t \u0111\u1eb9p.<\/p>\n

Hi\u1ec7n nay, c\u00e1c c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Standard & Poor\u2019s 500 \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 m\u1ee9c P\/E trung b\u00ecnh v\u00e0o kho\u1ea3ng 16,8, m\u1ee9c b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng so v\u1edbi ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n l\u1ecbch s\u1eed. T\u1eeb Chi\u1ebfn tranh Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi II, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 P\/E trung b\u00ecnh tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n M\u1ef9 l\u00e0 16,1. Trong nh\u1eefng giai \u0111o\u1ea1n ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n bong b\u00f3ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n M\u1ef9 v\u00e0o th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 11920 v\u00e0 1990, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 P\/E l\u00e0 30.<\/p>\n

Ph\u1ea7n c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i trong th\u00f4ng \u0111i\u1ec7p tr\u1ea5n an c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a Wall Street l\u00e0 th\u1eadm ch\u00ed trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng hi\u1ec7n nay c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p M\u1ef9 d\u1eabn t\u1edbi m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n, s\u1ee9c t\u00e0n ph\u00e1 c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng k\u00e9o d\u00e0i v\u00ec gi\u00e1 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t bi\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9 r\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m. Graham v\u00e0 Dodd tin t\u01b0\u1edfng nhi\u1ec1u v\u00e0o ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 P\/E, tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u00f3 l\u1ebd, h\u1ecd s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed3ng \u00fd v\u1edbi c\u00e1ch m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 hi\u1ec7n nay s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh vi\u1ec7c khuy\u00ean c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u00ean t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng g\u00ec \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra trong doanh nghi\u1ec7p, hai chuy\u00ean gia n\u00e0y c\u0169ng khuy\u1ebfn c\u00e1o kh\u00f4ng n\u00ean t\u1eadp trung qua nhi\u1ec1u v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng g\u00ec v\u1eeba m\u1edbi di\u1ec5n ra trong kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian ng\u1eafn. Theo quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd, nh\u1eefng th\u00f4ng tin c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t v\u00e0i th\u00e1ng, ho\u1eb7c th\u1eadm ch\u00ed l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t n\u0103m c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn t\u1edbi nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec3u l\u1ea7m s\u00e2u s\u1eafc. Nh\u1eefng th\u00f4ng tin nh\u01b0 v\u1eady s\u1ebd ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a n\u00f3i v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra t\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m ng\u1eafn ng\u1ee7i n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, h\u01a1n l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng ty.<\/p>\n

Do v\u1eady, Graham v\u00e0 Dodd l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 P\/E n\u00ean so s\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a th\u1eddi gian \u201ckh\u00f4ng \u00edt h\u01a1n 5 n\u0103m, t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 7 ho\u1eb7c 10 n\u0103m.\u201d<\/p>\n

L\u1eddi khuy\u00ean n\u00e0y h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb l\u00e3ng qu\u00ean trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed. V\u00ec m\u1ed9t l\u00fd do n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, vi\u1ec7c\u00a0thu th\u1eadp c\u00e1c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u1ec1 thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty trong m\u1ed9t th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m m\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eddi gian. M\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c, d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 h\u01a1i k\u1ef3 l\u1ea1 khi l\u1ee5c t\u00ecm nh\u1eefng th\u00f4ng tin \u0111\u00e3 qu\u00e1 l\u00e2u trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9, khi m\u00e0 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 l\u00e0 \u0111o\u00e1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1eefng g\u00ec s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u00f3 \u00edt nh\u1ea5t m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 nh\u1edb \u0111\u1ebfn l\u1eddi khuy\u00ean n\u00e0y. Trong v\u00f2ng nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m, Robert Shiller, m\u1ed9t gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Yale, \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 P\/E d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. V\u00e0 khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1eddi \u0111\u1ec3 thuy\u1ebft tr\u00ecnh tr\u01b0\u1edbc Alan Greenspan, c\u1ef1u Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang M\u1ef9 (FED), v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1996, Shiller \u0111\u00e3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 qu\u00e1 cao. M\u1ed9t v\u00e0i ng\u00e0y sau \u0111\u00f3, Greenspan \u0111\u00e3 g\u00e2y ra m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee3t b\u00e1n th\u00e1o c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu l\u1edbn tr\u00ean ph\u1ea1m vi to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u trong th\u1eddi gian ng\u1eafn khi \u00f4ng \u0111\u1eb7t c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi li\u1ec7u \u201cs\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng phi l\u00fd\u201d \u0111ang \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c t\u1edbi c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n

Ng\u00e0y nay, ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u1ee7a Graham v\u00e0 Dodd t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t b\u1ee9c tranh r\u1ea5t kh\u00e1c so v\u1edbi b\u1ee9c tranh m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ph\u1ed1 Wall \u0111\u01b0a ra. N\u1ebfu d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trung b\u00ecnh trong v\u00f2ng 10 n\u0103m qua, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 P\/E trong th\u1eddi g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y dao \u0111\u1ed9ng xung quanh con s\u1ed1 27. Con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y cao h\u01a1n m\u1ee9c P\/E \u1edf b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0o trong v\u00f2ng 130 n\u0103m qua, tr\u1eeb nh\u1eefng th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n M\u1ef9 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n bong b\u00f3ng v\u00e0o th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 1920 v\u00e0 1990. Gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn \u1edf m\u1ee9c qu\u00e1 cao trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1990, n\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, \u0111\u1ebfn n\u1ed7i th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb sau \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng \u0111\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 P\/E \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh nh\u01b0 v\u1eady kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n M\u1ef9 t\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu s\u1ebd l\u00e2m v\u00e0o kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng. Tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh n\u00e0y \u0111em \u0111\u1ebfn cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 m\u1ed9t h\u01b0\u1edbng suy ngh\u0129 t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n khi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0.<\/p>\n

Trong m\u1ed9t v\u00e0i n\u0103m tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e2y, l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh. C\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111ang l\u1edbn m\u1ea1nh, c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 m\u1edbi \u0111\u00e3 gi\u00fap c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 h\u01a1n, v\u00e0 v\u00ec nhi\u1ec1u l\u00fd do, bao g\u1ed3m to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u h\u00f3a v\u00e0 t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00f3a, c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng nh\u00e2n kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 y\u00eau c\u1ea7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u1ea3 l\u01b0\u01a1ng cao h\u01a1n. Th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a B\u1ed9 Th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 cho th\u1ea5y, ch\u1ec9 trong v\u00f2ng 3 n\u0103m t\u1eeb 2003 \u0111\u1ebfn 2006, l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u00f3 t\u00ednh t\u1edbi y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng h\u01a1n 30%. S\u1ef1 b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 cho ph\u00e9p ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 P\/E chu\u1ea9n tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n M\u1ef9 duy tr\u00ec \u1edf m\u1ee9c kh\u00e1 th\u1ea5p.<\/p>\n

Trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, c\u00f3 hai kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n M\u1ef9.<\/p>\n

Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u00f4ng ty ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh. Trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p n\u00e0y, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 P\/E theo c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh c\u1ee7a Graham v\u00e0 Dodd s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a quan tr\u1ecdng. Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 P\/E \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd ch\u1ec9 ch\u1ee9ng minh cho m\u1ed9t th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i th\u00eam n\u1eefa, v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn v\u1edbi chi\u1ec1u h\u01b0\u1edbng r\u1ea5t t\u00edch c\u1ef1c trong v\u00e0i n\u0103m t\u1edbi.<\/p>\n

Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng th\u1ee9 hai l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn doanh nghi\u1ec7p s\u1ebd nhanh ch\u00f3ng k\u1ebft th\u00fac. C\u00f3 l\u1ebd s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u1ec1 n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t trong th\u1eddi gian g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y s\u1ebd m\u1ea5t d\u1ea7n \u0111i, nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng n\u00e0y. Ho\u1eb7c, nh\u1eefng n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf l\u1edbn tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi suy gi\u1ea3m trong m\u1ed9t v\u00e0i n\u0103m t\u1edbi. Trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 v\u1eady x\u1ea3y ra, gi\u00e1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ed9t nhi\u00ean b\u1ecb coi l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t cao.<\/p>\n

Trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n M\u1ef9 g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn v\u1eabn l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t n\u01a1i t\u1ed1t \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0. Tuy nhi\u00ean, vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 trong v\u00f2ng v\u00e0i n\u0103m t\u1edbi c\u00f3 v\u1ebb nh\u01b0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1eb7t tr\u00ean m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n m\u00f3ng thi\u1ebfu v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng l\u1eddi khuy\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb \u00eam tai t\u1eeb c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia ph\u1ed1 Wall.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n M\u1ef9 hi\u1ec7n nay \u0111ang c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng tr\u00f4ng mong v\u00e0o \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng r\u1eb1ng cho n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t k\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean m\u1edbi c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn nhanh ch\u00f3ng. Th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00ec, vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o c\u1ee5m t\u1eeb \u201ck\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean m\u1edbi\u201d th\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng m\u1ea5y khi di\u1ec5n ra t\u1ed1t \u0111\u1eb9p. V\u00e0 \u0111\u00e2y l\u1ea1i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t r\u1ee7i ro n\u1eefa tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n M\u1ef9.<\/p>\n

(Theo NYT – <\/em>Th\u1ee9 S\u00e1u, 17\/8\/2007)<\/span><\/p>\n

Vneconomy\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

M\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1edbn v\u1ec1 c\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch gi\u00e1 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb l\u00e3ng qu\u00ean ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-433","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dau-tu"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/robostock.vn\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/robostock.vn\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/robostock.vn\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/robostock.vn\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/robostock.vn\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=433"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/robostock.vn\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/robostock.vn\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=433"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/robostock.vn\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=433"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/robostock.vn\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=433"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}